Embryonic South Yemeni state in critical condition just five days after its proclamation
Less than a month after securing territorial control over the entirety of South Yemen following a successful offensive in early December, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) has seen its gains unravel. After that advance, the STC proclaimed the birth of the new State of South Arabia on 2 January. Five days later, an offensive by forces allied with the Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia, has left the STC in a critical position.
The secessionist organisation, which in turn enjoyed the support of the United Arab Emirates, had calculated that it could maintain territorial control over the former South Yemen. Last week, it announced the restoration of that state under the name South Arabia, alongside plans for a self-determination referendum and a two-year transition towards independence.
The offensive by Yemeni government and Saudi forces forced the STC, on 7 December, to withdraw from at least large parts of the southern capital, Aden, after losing control of almost the entire territory of South Yemen. Several reports indicate that STC forces have regrouped in Dhale and Lahj, the two westernmost governorates of South Yemen. The STC claims that its leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, remains in Aden; Saudis meanwhile say he fled by boat to Somaliland and will go into exile in the United Arab Emirates from there.
In a statement, the STC accused Saudi Arabia of causing civilian casualties in South Yemen during the offensive, called on Riyadh to halt the operation, and demanded the release of around 50 STC representatives who had travelled to the Saudi capital for talks with Saudi authorities.
If it manages to consolidate control over South Yemen, the Yemeni government now has the option of attempting to reorganise its support base there before seeking to retake the former North Yemen, which remains largely under the control of the Houthis, an Iran-aligned Shiite Islamist militia.
